Your ecommerce peak season checklist

The winter holidays may be months away, but ecommerce companies start preparing for their peak season long before November hits. For many of these brands, this time of the year can account for up to 50% of annual sales.

At Mercury, we work with a number of ecommerce founders navigating the unpredictable nature of peak season. Halfway through the year, it’s common to audit year-to-date performance (sales, conversion rate, top product lines, etc.) and take any learnings heading into the second half of the year. But by the time August rolls around, it’s already time to incorporate those insights and put your peak season plan into action.

To help you prepare for every phase, we’ve compiled a comprehensive checklist — from locking in capital to assessing performance in the new year.

Inventory orders and marketing costs are about to spike, but revenue hasn’t landed yet — which creates a familiar squeeze for ecommerce founders. It’s important to get ahead of this before lead times and logistics get messy. You can’t sell what you don’t have; and you can’t scale without liquidity.

Checklist

On capital

• Forecast your working capital needs through November, including inventory deposits, marketing, and operating costs, and compare them against current cash flow and expected inflows.
• Explore financing options: credit lines, revenue-based financing, inventory financing, or early payout tools. Choose based on cost, flexibility, and how it aligns with your cash conversion cycle.
• Get approved (or increase your credit limit) before you need the funds.
• Build a working capital model through November and overlay it with your actual cash on hand and expected inflows.

On inventory

• Confirm inventory needs by SKU based on updated Q4 projections, focusing on peak season priorities like bestsellers and limited drops.
• Lock in production timelines with suppliers — earlier is always better, confirm lead times and pricing for fall orders. 

This is the time to finalize your peak season promotions, test creative, and align your team on what’s happening. By the end of this month, messaging, creative, placements, and distribution tactics should be set.

Checklist

On promotions

• Confirm your major promotional dates (e.g., Black Friday and Cyber Monday, shipping cutoffs, holiday gifting windows).
• Decide on core offers for each event: discount percentages, free shipping, bundles, gifts with purchase, loyalty incentives, etc.
• Align your offers with inventory realities and margin constraints.

On campaign testing

• Develop creative assets for key channels (website, Meta, Google, TikTok, email, SMS, etc.).
• Test messaging, creative, and audiences to validate what’s converting before scaling spend in October.

October is the on-ramp to peak season. Your campaigns go live, ad spend starts to rise, and early signals start flowing in. This is the month to validate what works — before the floodgates open in November. While it’s tempting to go all-in right away, smart brands use October to test with purpose, fine-tune messaging, and pressure-test operations before peak hits.

Checklist

On campaign launches

• Launch campaigns across paid, owned, and organic channels using tested creative and targeted offers.
• Monitor daily performance (ROAS, CTR, CPC, AOV, conversion rate) and adjust budgets accordingly.
• Begin retargeting flows to warm up audiences ahead of BFCM.
• Identify top-performing creative and channels then lock in all assets for BFCM campaigns (ads, emails, SMS, site banners, etc.)

On operations

• Test all automations: abandon cart, order confirmation, shipping notifications, etc.
• Double-check your third-party logistics (3PL) or warehouse is ready for the upcoming surge.
• Confirm inventory has landed or is inbound with no major red flags.
• Stress-test your website for mobile UX, speed, and checkout friction.

November is the main event. Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) aren’t just high-volume days — they’re performance amplifiers. Brands that are well-prepped in November can unlock a year’s worth of revenue in just a few weeks. But success depends on execution: smart spend, tight inventory control, rapid optimization, and seamless operations.

Checklist

On campaign monitoring

• Ensure all BFCM campaigns (ads, emails, SMS, and site updates) are live and functioning as planned.
• Monitor performance multiple times per day; metrics to look out for include ROAS, CTR, site speed, and budget pacing.
• Scale effective campaigns aggressively and pause under performers decisively.

On inventory management

• Monitor inventory velocity daily — especially on your bestsellers.
• Adjust ad spend to pace against inventory: Scale back on low-stock items and double down where you have surplus.
• Prep restock plans for December or January if velocity outpaces forecasts.

On operations, fulfillment, and customer experience

• Watch support queues for signs of checkout issues, promo code errors, broken links, or shipping delays that could impact sales.
• Use live chat, SMS, or email to communicate transparently on delayed items to manage expectations and reduce churn.

December is a continuation of your peak — but with new rules. Black Friday may be behind you, but shoppers are still in buying mode, especially for gifting and last-minute orders. The challenge now? Balancing continued demand with inventory and margin realities. This month is about being selective: Spend where you have inventory, protect where you're low, and keep operations smooth as you close out the year.

Checklist

On inventory

• Review inventory daily and bucket SKUs:
  • Scale: In-stock, high-margin, high-conversion items
  • Protect: Low-stock, slow-moving, or high-returns risk
• Adjust ad campaigns to match: pause low-stock ads and shift budget to surplus SKUs.
• Promote bundles, “buy more, save more” deals or free gifts that move inventory without discounting heavily.

On the final conversion push

• Promote shipping cutoffs clearly (site banners, checkout, etc.) to prevent customer frustration or spikes in support tickets.
• Use last-minute gift messaging such as “Ships today,” or “Arrives before [holiday],” paired with urgency-driven CTAs like countdown timers and low-stock alerts.
• Maximize AOV with upsells at checkout and post-purchase.

On operations

• Double-check fulfillment timelines and confirm last-mile carrier cutoff dates.
• Clearly communicate any shipping delays via order confirmation and post-purchase emails.
• Flag any backorders or delays before they turn into negative reviews.

January is the cooldown lap after the Q4 sprint. The revenue rush has slowed, inventory is stabilizing, and now it’s time to shift from execution to insight. What worked? What didn’t? Which campaigns and channels actually moved the needle? This is where great operators separate themselves — by translating Q4 learning into smart decisions for the year ahead.

Checklist

On performance analysis & forecasting

• Pull full-funnel results from BFCM through December (sales, CAC, ROAS, AOV, conversion rate, return rate, CX ticket volume) and analyze which offers, audiences, and messages drove the best returns.
• Evaluate results by SKU and channel to understand margin drivers and under performers.
• Adjust revenue and inventory forecasts, revisit acquisition targets and cost benchmarks, and modify your operating budget to reflect cash shortfalls or windfalls.
• Align your team and agency partners on key takeaways and Q1 priorities.

On inventory management

• Review leftover inventory—identify what can be restocked vs. cleared.
• Run clearance or “New Year” campaigns to move dead stock.
• Evaluate supplier terms and plan reorders for 2025 bestsellers.
• Optimize warehouse space and logistics based on learnings from Q4.

On closing your books

• Finalize December financials: close out accounts receivable/payable (invoices, refunds, vendor bills, etc.) and categorize expenses for accurate P&L reporting.
• Prepare 1099s and other tax documentation for contractors, suppliers, or partners.
• Confirm cash position and runway heading into Q1 — decide how much to reinvest versus reserve.

We hope you found this overview helpful, as you approach the most promising time of the year. Here’s a quick summary on how our products can make things just a bit easier this peak season:

Visit this page to learn more about how Mercury can empower your ecommerce business for peak season.